Cal Poly
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
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RankNameGradeRating
152  Chris Frias JR 32:04
192  David Cardona SR 32:13
226  Sean Davidson JR 32:17
365  Mitchell Moriarty SO 32:36
449  Blake Ahrold JR 32:48
668  Michael Johnson SR 33:14
1,020  Tyler Huntley FR 33:48
1,026  Derek Thomas SR 33:48
1,383  Kyle Lynch FR 34:19
1,657  Eric Morford FR 34:42
1,734  Jeff Miles FR 34:51
1,855  Aric Champagne SR 35:03
National Rank #44 of 311
West Region Rank #8 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 5.3%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.4%


Regional Champion 0.1%
Top 5 in Regional 13.1%
Top 10 in Regional 96.1%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Chris Frias David Cardona Sean Davidson Mitchell Moriarty Blake Ahrold Michael Johnson Tyler Huntley Derek Thomas Kyle Lynch Eric Morford Jeff Miles
Stanford Invitational 09/29 1167 32:32 34:02 34:41 34:50
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 745 32:03 31:55 32:11 32:39 33:07 32:57
Big West Championships 10/27 705 32:00 32:34 32:29 32:06 32:06 33:54 33:31 33:08 34:19
West Region Championships 11/09 820 32:18 32:02 32:17 32:58 32:57 33:08 34:36





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 5.3% 26.9 613 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9
Region Championship 100% 7.4 220 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.1 8.1 16.0 24.1 20.7 14.0 8.1 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Chris Frias 22.4% 107.2
David Cardona 10.3% 128.8
Sean Davidson 8.0% 132.0
Mitchell Moriarty 5.4% 182.0
Blake Ahrold 5.3% 202.1
Michael Johnson 5.4% 236.0
Tyler Huntley 5.5% 250.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Chris Frias 22.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.9
David Cardona 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.0 1.9 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.8 3.1 2.5 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4
Sean Davidson 33.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.1 2.7
Mitchell Moriarty 53.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4
Blake Ahrold 64.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Michael Johnson 89.4
Tyler Huntley 120.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 1
2 0.6% 100.0% 0.6 0.6 2
3 1.3% 81.8% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3
4 3.1% 52.9% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.5 1.6 4
5 8.1% 18.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 6.6 1.5 5
6 16.0% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 15.5 0.5 6
7 24.1% 0.1% 0.0 24.1 0.0 7
8 20.7% 20.7 8
9 14.0% 14.0 9
10 8.1% 8.1 10
11 2.7% 2.7 11
12 0.9% 0.9 12
13 0.3% 0.3 13
14 0.0% 0.0 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 5.3% 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 94.7 0.7 4.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.3
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0